Selection Sunday in men’s college basketball is fewer than eight weeks away. That’s still plenty of time for teams to change their NCAA tournament fates, but with conference play in full swing we have enough data points to start projecting the field of 68. Who’s rising, who’s falling and which teams have the most to prove in the weeks ahead? Here’s an early look at the projected field and which teams might be sweating all the way until March.

On the Bubble 

Last Four Byes:

San Diego State Aztecs
Maryland Terrapins
Ohio State Buckeyes
Pittsburgh Panthers

Last Four In:

Vanderbilt Commodores
North Carolina Tar Heels
UCF Knights
Wake Forest Demon Deacons

First Four Out:

Indiana Hoosiers
Nebraska Cornhuskers
Texas Longhorns
Drake Bulldogs

Next Four Out:

Arizona State Sun Devils
Cincinnati Bearcats
Xavier Musketeers
VCU Rams

Big brands are everywhere in our first look at the bubble. The most interesting story line at the moment is North Carolina’s struggles, with the Heels now just 12–8 after consecutive ACC losses to Stanford and Wake Forest. Hubert Davis’s team is just 1–7 in Quad 1 games and has a difficult stretch upcoming with trips to Pittsburgh, Duke and Clemson. Upsetting the Blue Devils at least once might be the only way for the Heels to feel safely in the field.

Indiana got a brief reprieve with its road win at Ohio State on Friday, but its struggles set in again Wednesday night in Evanston, Ill., where the Hoosiers gave up 54 points in the second half to Northwestern. Mike Woodson’s team has subpar predictive metrics and has only one win against the projected field as of today. The Hoosiers need to make hay in a tough upcoming stretch that features five straight Quad 1 games. By Valentine’s Day, IU could be a tournament lock or off the bubble altogether … and based on the trend, the latter seems more likely.

* indicates a projected automatic qualifier

South Region 

No. 1 Auburn Tigers* vs. No. 16 Morehead State Eagles*/Howard Bison*
No. 8 Baylor Bears vs. No. 9 Saint Mary’s Gaels
No. 5 Wisconsin Badgers vs. No. 12 Lipscomb Bisons*
No. 4 Houston Cougars* vs. No. 13 Samford Bulldogs*
No. 6 UConn Huskies vs. No. 11 North Carolina Tar Heels/UCF Knights
No. 3 Kentucky Wildcats vs. No. 14 Charleston Cougars*
No. 7 West Virginia Mountaineers vs. No. 10 New Mexico Lobos*
No. 2 Michigan State Spartans* vs. No. 15 Quinnipiac Bobcats*

Auburn currently sits as the No. 1 overall seed in our seed list, and there’s a considerable gap between the Tigers and No. 2 overall Duke, despite the Blue Devils’ head-to-head win. Auburn has 10 Quad 1 wins, by far the most in the country. Those include some truly elite wins, like neutral-court victories over Houston, Iowa State and Purdue. So far, Bruce Pearl’s team has navigated the loss of star forward Johni Broome well, and it would take multiple losses to put this spot in serious jeopardy. 

Winners of 11 straight, Michigan State earns the last No. 2 seed in the bracket after a monster win Sunday over Illinois. A gauntlet looms ahead: MSU has seven games left against current top-30 KenPom teams, four of which come against top-15 teams. A No. 1 seed isn’t off the table with a strong finish. 

East Region 

No. 1 Duke Blue Devils* vs. No. 16 Colgate Raiders*/LIU Sharks*
No. 8 Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. No. 9 Oklahoma Sooners
No. 5 Memphis Tigers* vs. No. 12 McNeese State Cowboys*
No. 4 Mississippi State Bulldogs vs. No. 13 South Alabama Jaguars*
No. 6 St. John’s Red Storm* vs. No. 11 Vanderbilt Commodores/Wake Forest Demon Deacons
No. 3 Purdue Boilermakers vs. No. 14 Miami (Ohio) RedHawks*
No. 7 Arizona Wildcats vs. No. 10 Maryland Terrapins
No. 2 Florida Gators vs. No. 15 Northern Colorado Bears*

Memphis will be one of the more difficult teams to seed given how few opportunities for notable wins the Tigers get in AAC play. The Tigers moved the needle in nonconference play with big wins over Michigan State, Ole Miss, UConn, Clemson and Missouri, but could see teams pass them if they suffer too many slip-ups in league play.

A key bracketology story line to monitor over the next several weeks will be the status of SEC bubble teams like Oklahoma. The league’s strength could leave the Sooners with 11 to 12 conference losses, but every win should help the résumé, and OU also did serious work in its nonconference slate. When SEC commissioner Greg Sankey talks about NCAA tournament expansion, these are the type of teams he’s looking to accommodate. 

Midwest Region 

No. 1 Iowa State Cyclones vs. No. 16 Southern Jaguars*
No. 8 Missouri Tigers vs. No. 9 Creighton Bluejays
No. 5 Michigan Wolverines vs. No. 12 Bradley Braves*
No. 4 Texas A&M Aggies vs. No. 13 UTEP Miners*
No. 6 Georgia Bulldogs vs. No. 11 Pittsburgh Panthers
No. 3 Oregon Ducks vs. No. 14 Utah Valley Wolverines*
No. 7 Clemson Tigers vs. No. 10 San Diego State Aztecs*
No. 2 Tennessee Volunteers vs. No. 15 Bryant Bulldogs*

Iowa State’s Selection Sunday seed was perhaps pushed down some a year ago by a poor nonconference strength of schedule. This year’s slate wasn’t loaded with world beaters, but an early-season win over Marquette combined with road/neutral wins over Marquette and Iowa help bolster the early case for Cyclones on the No. 1 line. 

Creighton started just 7–5, but has climbed back into strong tournament position with early Big East wins over St. John’s and UConn. Since Christmas, the Bluejays have played like a top-20 team, per T-Rank. Keep that up, and the Jays could climb the seed list rapidly. 

West Region 

No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide vs. No. 16 Omaha Mavericks*
No. 8 Utah State Aggies vs. No. 9 UCLA Bruins
No. 5 Ole Miss Rebels vs. No. 12 George Mason Patriots*
No. 4 Illinois Fighting Illini vs. No. 13 Princeton Tigers*
No. 6 Louisville Cardinals vs. No. 11 UC Irvine Anteaters*
No. 3 Kansas Jayhawks vs. No. 14 UNC Asheville Bulldogs*
No. 7 Gonzaga Bulldogs vs. No. 10 Ohio State Buckeyes
No. 2 Marquette Golden Eagles vs. No. 15 Cleveland State Vikings*

A month ago, even just making the NCAA tournament felt like a bit of a long shot for Louisville. But after nine straight wins, including needle-movers against North Carolina, Clemson, Pittsburgh and SMU, the Cardinals are now dreaming about just how high they can climb. As of now, Louisville doesn’t have another Quad 1 game left in the regular season, which means fewer opportunities for big wins but a chance to stack victories while teams around them lose. 

Headed in the other direction is Gonzaga, which has lost consecutive WCC games for the first time in nearly a decade. Predictive metrics love the Bulldogs, but the résumé is underwhelming and big early wins over Baylor, San Diego State and Indiana don’t look as impressive as they used to. The Bulldogs could trend closer to the bubble if they can’t right the ship quickly. 


This article was originally published on www.si.com as Men’s Bracket Watch: First Look at Projected 2025 March Madness Field.