MMQB DIVISIONAL-ROUND PICKS | NFL BETTING PICKS
There could be a playoff classic brewing Sunday in Buffalo where Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson will face off in the final divisional round game of the weekend in the NFL playoffs.
All eyes will be on the highly anticipated showdown between Allen’s Buffalo Bills and Jackson’s Baltimore Ravens, but the other three games could also provide plenty of drama, possibly making up for the five blowout games that occurred in last week’s wild-card round.
The Houston Texans will be looking to pull off another playoff upset Saturday when they face the Kansas City Chiefs, who will begin their quest to become the first team in NFL history to win three consecutive Super Bowls. The Texans leaned on a dominant defensive performance to cruise against the Los Angeles Chargers in the wild-card round.
The Detroit Lions will aim to finish what they started last postseason when they host the Washington Commanders for the second game of Saturday’s doubleheader. Rookie sensation Jayden Daniels delivered a game-winning drive for the Commanders to get past the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
The Los Angeles Rams and Philadelphia Eagles kick off the action in the first of two games Sunday. The Rams’ rising defense will have its hands full against Saquon Barkley, who rushed for 2,005 yards in the regular season.
Here’s everything you need to know about the divisional round, including Gilberto Manzano’s key matchups, Matt Verderame’s key stats, Iain MacMillan’s best bets and Conor Orr’s prediction for each game.
SATURDAY
Houston Texans (11–7) at Kansas City Chiefs (15–2)
When/TV: 4:30 p.m. ESPN, ABC, ESPN+
Spread: Chiefs -8.5 (over/under: 41.5)
Matchup to watch: Texans’ pass rushers vs. Chiefs’ offensive line. Houston is coming off a dominant defensive performance, and they’re going to need more of the same, especially from star edge rushers Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter, to disrupt Patrick Mahomes’s timing and pull off the upset at Arrowhead Stadium. But Kansas City’s offensive line has drastically improved since moving All-Pro guard Joe Thuney to left tackle. Houston only had one sack when these two teams met almost four weeks ago in K.C. —Manzano
Key stat: In their Week 16 matchup, the Chiefs won 27–19 with the Kansas City defense hitting C.J. Stroud 11 times including four from Chris Jones. Houston allowed 56 hits on Stroud during the season, seventh-most in footba. However, the quarterback hit the most? Patrick Mahomes at 70. Which team gets to the other quarterback more? —Verderame
Best bet: Texans +375. Call me crazy, but I think we’re going to see a big upset in this game. The Chiefs rank last amongst remaining playoff teams in net yards per play this season at -0.2. Their biggest strength and the reason they have the record they do is their ability to consistently elevate their play on third down. That sets up for an intriguing matchup against the Texans, who have one of the best third-down defenses in the NFL, ranking third in opponent third-down success rate. If you want to take a shot on a big underdog to win outright his weekend, consider the Texans at almost 4-1 odds. —MacMillan
SI’s pick: The closer I get to this game, the more I want to pick the Texans, a team that everyone wrote off and referred to as a bye week before their physical, defense-forward win over the Chargers. However, betting against the Chiefs is a fool’s errand, even if that means robbing ourselves of a redux of Houston’s massive blown lead in the playoffs at Arrowhead a few years back. —Orr
Washington Commanders (13–5) at Detroit Lions (15–2)
When/TV: 8 p.m. ET, FOX
Spread: Lions -9.5 (over/under: 55.5)
Matchup to watch: Commanders WR Terry McLaurin vs. Lions CB Amik Robertson. With the No. 1 seed on the line, Robertson delivered a career performance in containing Vikings star wideout Justin Jefferson during Detroit’s Week 18 win. Defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn might follow a similar game plan, allowing Robertson to shadow McLaurin to possibly give the rest of the defense more opportunities to rush Jayden Daniels. McLaurin, who thrives on contested catches, recorded seven catches for 89 yards and one touchdown in last week’s wild-card win over the Buccaneers. —Manzano
Key stat: By using both scheme and mobility, Washington has managed to keep Jayden Daniels from a ton of pressure. In fact, he was only pressured on 18.5% of dropbacks, fifth-best of any quarterback who started at least 12 games. Without Aidan Hutchinson and Alim McNeill, Detroit has to get home. —Verderame
Best bet: Over 55.5. If you want to sit back and root for points, this is the game. Both offenses rank inside the top five in virtually every single offensive category including EPA per play, success rate and points per game. Meanwhile, the Commanders’ defense has been an average unit all year and the Lions’ defense is still dealing with some significant injuries. I expect this game to be a high-scoring affair. —MacMillan
SI’s pick: I think the Commanders are where they’re meant to be. They’ve maxed out their potential this season and while it’s always dangerous to see a team playing with house money, the Lions are so deep and so talented. They’re not insurmountable but as close as humanly possible. —Orr
SUNDAY
Los Angeles Rams (11–7) at Philadelphia Eagles (15–3)
When/TV: 3 p.m. ET, NBC, Peacock
Spread: Eagles -6.5 (over/under: 44.5)
Matchup to watch: Eagles RB Saquon Barkley vs. Rams’ defensive front. Los Angeles’s young defense made a name for itself last week after recording nine sacks against the Vikings. But Barkley humbled this defense back in Week 12, with 255 rushing yards and 47 receiving yards. Rookie edge rusher Jared Verse has excelled at pressuring the quarterback, but he failed to set the edge against Barkley. Verse & Co. have improved since the Philly loss and haven’t allowed a team to score 10 points in four of their past five games. —Manzano
Key stat: In the regular season, no team threw less than the Eagles. Now, they enter the divisional round against the Rams relying more than ever on Saquon Barkley, who in their Week 12 matchup ran for 255 yards and two scores. On the season, Los Angeles has struggled to stand up facing the run, ranking 24th at 4.6 yards per carry against. —Verderame
Best bet: Eagles -6.5. Don’t let the Rams win against the Vikings convince you they belong in the conversation with the likes of the Eagles. Los Angeles currently ranks 19th in net yards per play, 15th in EPA per play and 23rd in opponent EPA per play. The Eagles rank fourth, sixth and third in three metrics. From top to bottom, they’re a different class of football team and if the Rams can’t find a way to slow down Barkley, the Eagles are going to run away with the win. —MacMillan
SI’s pick: Another situation where I’d love to pick the Rams but have to stay on the rails and guard myself against a miraculous winning streak. The Eagles physically handled this team in their first meeting to the point where I can’t see the Rams closing the gap. —Orr
Baltimore Ravens (13–5) at Buffalo Bills (14–4)
When/TV: 6:30 p.m. ET, CBS, Paramount+
Spread: Ravens -1.5 (over/under: 51.5)
Matchup to watch: Ravens RB Derrick Henry vs. Bills’ LBs. The bruising running back punished Buffalo’s defense for 199 rushing yards during the Ravens’ 35–10 victory in Week 4. But the Bills were without linebackers Matt Milano and Terrel Bernard for the first meeting because of injuries. They’ll be available Sunday and they could be the key to containing Henry, who rushed for 1,921 yards in the regular season and had 186 rushing yards against the Steelers in the wild-card round. The Broncos only had 79 rushing yards against the Bills last week. —Manzano
Key stat: No team has been more effective running the ball in recent years than the Ravens. This season, Baltimore rushed for a league-high 5.8 yards per carry, while Buffalo’s defense is a middling 21st against the run, allowing 4.5 YPC. In Week 4, Derrick Henry ran wild against the Bills’ lighter front, going for 199 yards and a touchdown on just 24 carries. —Verderame
Best bet: Ravens -1.5. The key in this game is the two defenses which have been trending in opposite directions in recent weeks. Since Week 10, the Ravens defense ranks third in opponent EPA per play and second in opponent success rate. In the same time frame, the Bills rank 32nd and 31st in those two respective stats. The Ravens ran all over them in their Week 4 meeting and I expect a similar result on Sunday night. —MacMillan
SI’s pick: Baltimore. Why not? I think if both defensive coordinators try and take the run threat of the QB off the table, the Ravens have more to offer overall. It could simply come down to what the supporting cast looks like, and the Ravens have a slight edge there. —Orr
All best bet odds courtesy FanDuel.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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This article was originally published on www.si.com as NFL Divisional-Round Playoffs 2024: Chiefs Begin Quest for Historic Three-Peat.