SARASOTA – For the past six hurricane seasons, named storms have formed before June 1. Now the World Meteorological Organization and the National Hurricane Center consider moving the official start from June 1 to May 15.
While hurricanes can form at any time of the year, June through November encompasses the overwhelming majority of tropical storm development. But why are storms forming earlier and sparking this conversation?
One, satellite technology is far superior to decades ago, meaning we can identify storms we couldn’t have decades ago.
Second is something called multi-decadal oscillation, and all that means is waters naturally change from cooler to warmer every 25 to 40 years. We’ve been in the warm period since 1995.
“Before 1995, in the 70s and 80s, we were really low; it wasn’t that active,” says National Weather Service meteorologist Daniel Noah.
Third, climate change can warm the waters further.
At least for this year, the date probably won’t change: findings have to be presented to the World Meteorological Organization to change the date, which takes a while. Until then, the National Hurricane Center will begin issuing tropical outlooks earlier on May 15.
“Normally that would be on June 1st but the last six years we’ve been forced to just start earlier so we’re just gonna do it anyway,” Noah says.
If the date does change starting in 2022, Noah says this could encourage people to prepare sooner.
“It’s hard to prepare for a hurricane when it’s not threatening you right now. But let me just say that if you prepare now, when a storm does come, you’re gonna be much less anxious. You don’t have to do it all at once when a storm approaches.”
And we agree with that message.