SARASOTA, Fla. (SNN TV) — By the time of the 2018 governor’s race, Florida had trended Republican for a few decades. But after being shut out of the governor’s mansion for 20 years, Florida Democrats finally had all the excitement in the world behind their backs.
In this next installment of “Red, Purple, & Blue: A Sea Change in Florida Politics,” we dive into the closest governor’s race in Florida’s history and the Democratic resurgence that wasn’t to be.
THE 2016 PRESIDENTIAL RACE THAT WASN’T
In 2018, President Donald Trump’s approval ratings were underwater. Democrats were crushing Republicans nationally in polling. And in Florida, a surprise candidate who rarely polled in first, endorsed by Democratic Socialist Senator Bernie Sanders, defeated several other Democrats to win the Democratic nomination for governor.
His name was Andrew Gillum, Tallahassee’s mayor. Gillum would run against former Republican congressman Ron DeSantis, who defeated Florida’s Commissioner of Agriculture, Adam Putman, after DeSantis received a big endorsement from Trump.
With Gillum being endorsed by Sanders in the primaries and DeSantis being endorsed by Trump, Gillum vs. DeSantis was arguably a proxy battle for the 2016 election that never happened: Sanders versus Trump.
Both Sanders and Trump in 2016 attracted the non-college educated white voters who helped Trump win Florida that same year. And Florida hadn’t changed much since that election.
“Party registration numbers didn’t change a great deal between ’14 and ’18,” explained Dr. Michael Binder, a professor and Director of the Public Opinion Research Laboratory at the University of North Florida.
DESANTIS VS. GILLUM
DeSantis tied his campaign to Trump, touting his endorsement and running a conservative campaign. Gillum ran a progressive campaign, calling for a Medicare for All system of health care in America.
“If you are a cancer patient, a patient with diabetes, sickle cell, if you are a pregnant woman in the state of Florida, Mr. DeSantis will have allowed for your health care to be taken from you. That is a fact,” Gillum declared in a debate.
“Anybody with preexisting conditions, if that falls through the cracks in Florida, we’ll stand by you. The bottom line is, we have to make it more affordable for people,” DeSantis responded.
Two big non-policy issues that surrounded the candidates also took center stage. For Gillum, it was corruption charges in Tallahassee and late campaign news of controversial Hamilton tickets he received unknowingly from an undercover FBI agent.
For DeSantis, it was race, especially when one of his donors called Obama a racist term, yet the DeSantis campaign did not return the donor’s money. This issue exploded in the second debate.
“How the hell am I supposed to know every single statement somebody makes?” DeSantis yelled at the moderator.
“I’m not calling Mr. DeSantis a racist. I’m simply saying the racists believe he’s a racist,” Gillum responded in this viral debate moment.
Polling was strong for Gillum until the end. But it was DeSantis who did just a little bit better than what he was polling, winning the governor’s race against Gillum, 49.6% to 49.2%.
“The closest margin of any governor’s race in Florida history,” said Zac Anderson, political reporter for the Sarasota Herald-Tribune.
Gillum would have Florida Democrats’ best showing since Governor Chiles’ reelection in 1994, but DeSantis was helped by strong numbers in similar areas that Trump won in 2016.
“Florida’s got a bunch of retirees and they have a bunch of thinking back to the Reagan Blue Dog Democrats, that white working class,” said Binder.
And with then-Governor Rick Scott defeating incumbent Democratic Senator Bill Nelson that same year, Democrats were almost shut out of all statewide offices for the first time.
But Democrat Nikki Fried won her race for Florida Commissioner of Agriculture. Democrats still had one voice statewide.
While Scott and DeSantis both barely won their races, they did in a big blue wave year, with Democrats winning more than 40 seats in the U.S. House, and also flipping seven governor’s mansions from Republican hands.
Despite strong Republican numbers in Florida, issues Democrats supported were winning.
“Every single ballot initiative, a majority of which are what I call progressive in nature — moving the ball forward —whether it’s environmental issues, whether it’s the restoration of civil rights, whether it is a $15 minimum wage, medical marijuana, all are passing by over 60%-70%, which shows me that the state of affairs of what voters want, what the voters’ issues are, they are aligned with the principles of the Democratic Party.”
WARNING SIGNS IN FLORIDA
So then what went wrong for Democrats, and right for Republicans? There were some signs: Democrats had a 444,000 voter registration advantage in 2014, when they lost. That was cut down to 257,000 by 2018.
But that dent in the Democrats’ voter advantage was the tip of the iceberg. 2018’s historically close election ended up being a wakeup call for Republicans.
“That was a good lesson for us as Republicans to make sure we fine-tune our ground games, our voter outreach, voter registration, everything,” said Jack Brill, Sarasota Republican chairman.
When DeSantis first stepped into office, he didn’t push bills getting national attention. He had announced water policy reforms, Everglades restoration, and a blue-green algae task force.
But Florida was about to see some major changes in the span of four years.
“Rick Scott took some big jumps, and Ron DeSantis told him to, ‘Hey, hold my beer. I’m really going to do some stuff,’” said Binder.
COMING UP NEXT WEEK
Even before Ron DeSantis became governor, more power was being given to the governor’s office as this series has detailed. This would be supercharged under Governor DeSantis.
In many ways, DeSantis is the culmination of decades of Republican growth in the state. Whether it’s the peak remains to be seen.
In Part 10 of “Red, Purple, & Blue: A Sea Change in Florida Politics,” we look at DeSantis’s response to the COVID pandemic, the policies he pushed that expanded the power a Florida governor has, and the dramatic shift in how many Republicans lived in Florida compared to Democrats.