SARASOTA, Fla. (SNN TV) — Even before Ron DeSantis became governor, more power was being given to the governor’s office. But even that power would change dramatically under a Governor DeSantis.
In many ways, DeSantis is the culmination of decades of Republican growth in the state. Whether it’s the peak remains to be seen.
In Part 10 of “Red, Purple, & Blue: A Sea Change in Florida Politics,” we look at DeSantis’s response to the COVID Pandemic, the dramatic shift in how many Republicans lived in Florida compared to Democrats, and the policies DeSantis pushed that were not just controversial, but expanded the power a Florida governor has.
DESANTIS AND THE COVID PANDEMIC
The novel coronavirus, officially named COVID in February 2020, was spreading worldwide. Governor DeSantis was facing pressure to close the state for everything except essential businesses.
On April 1, 2020, he finally issues a stay-at-home order statewide. By April 9, the state made an exception to organizations such as World Wrestling Entertainment, deeming them essential to Florida’s economy.
In June, well before much of the country, DeSantis announced the beginning of Phase 2 in front of a reopened Universal Orlando. Entertainment businesses could reopen with some restrictions. By September 2020, DeSantis lifted all restrictions on restaurants and other businesses and banned fines against people who refused to wear masks to protect themselves and others from the virus.
DeSantis touted the quicker reopening of Florida and would use this as a major part of his reelection platform in 2022.
2020: THE U.S. VOTES MORE DEMOCRATIC, EXCEPT FLORIDA
Then came the 2020 presidential election between former vice president Joe Biden and President Donald Trump. Biden won the election, winning states Trump won in 2016 — Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Arizona.
However, Florida voted for Trump by a slightly higher margin than in 2016.
In Sarasota County, Republicans expanded their margin of victory.
“In 2016, former president Trump won by 25,000 votes,” said Jack Brill, chairman of the Sarasota Republican Party. “And in 2020 our goal was to have former President Trump win by 28,000. We came in at [28,600]. We have met our goals in Sarasota County.”
At this point, Democrats’ registration advantage was only at around 97,000, a 160,000 voter swing toward Republicans from just two years earlier in 2018.
“Leading into the 2020 election, Democrats were not out there. [We] were not knocking on doors. We were not working on voter registration,” explained Nikki Fried, chairwoman of the Florida Democratic Party.
The person who was working on voter registration was Florida’s Republican Party chair and state Senator for Charlotte and Sarasota counties, Joe Gruters, an early backer of Trump in 2016.
“What he’s accomplished has been incredible and his insight is very, very good,” Brill said.
THE GOVERNOR’S POWER EXPANDS
While Gruters continued to build the Republican voter base, DeSantis pushed policies that gained national attention.
He signed a bill into law, the Parental Rights in Education Act, dubbed “Don’t Say Gay” by critics. It forbid discussion about gender identity and sexual orientation from Kindergarten through 3rd grade and was later expanded through 12th. While historically, conservatives advocated for local rule for education as opposed to the federal government, this law superseded local authority.
The governor tested the limits of his power after DeSantis signed the Parent Rights in Education Act. He moved to strip Disney of its self-governing status after Disney criticized that law, a situation still under litigation. He removed Tampa’s elected top prosecutor Andrew Warren from office after Warren said he wouldn’t enforce a new state abortion restriction or a potential law banning surgeries for transgender children.
“He removed Andrew from office because he thought Andrew might do something someday [that] he didn’t like,” said Rick Wilson, the founder of The Lincoln Project, a group opposed to former president Trump and his ideology. “That’s Fidel Castro. That’s Stalin. That’s Kim Jung Un. This is insanity.”
DEMOCRATS MAKE GAINS IN MANY PARTS OF THE COUNTRY, BUT REPUBLICANS ASSERT CONTROL IN FLORIDA
DeSantis defeated former Governor Charlie Crist in the 2022 Florida governor’s race by 19 points, the largest margin of victory for anyone running for Florida Governor since Bob Graham in 1982. Crist and gone up against then-Agriculture Commissioner of Florida Nikki Fried, who opted not to run for reelection and instead run for governor.
DeSantis was the first Republican since Jeb Bush to win Miami-Dade County, exclaiming, “Thank you to Miami-Dade County!” at his victory speech.
“I think Florida’s a very different state politically than it was four years ago, moreso than it was from ’14 to ’18,” said Dr. Michael Binder, a professor and Director of the Public Opinion Research Laboratory at the University of North Florida. “I think the shift from ’18 to ’22 is even more dramatic.”
THE DRASTIC SHIFT FROM 2018 TO 2022
Why was it dramatic? One of the reasons: the seniors moving to Florida now are, on average, voting differently than seniors before.
“People that were 65-plus 35 years ago maybe leaned a little bit Democrat,” Binder explained. “People that are 65+ today, and by people I mean old white middle-class-plus retirees that can afford to do this sort of stuff — you know pick up and come to Florida — they are overwhelmingly Republican. They grew up in a time when unions were on the way out. Reagan was president in their formative 20s and 30s years.”
Which means Florida being a retirement state for many Americans is different politically now than in 1990.
“They’re essentially replacing those old [retirees] that have moved here 10, 20 years ago that are dying off that were a mix of Democrats,” said Binder.
Putting aside all other demographics, how the elderly vote will have massive ramifications on elections.
“Old people vote in enormous numbers relative to everyone else, and there’s a lot of reasons for it. But that’s the difference,” Binder explained. “We went from a +2 Democratic registration advantage in 2018 to a +2 Republican advantage over Democrats in 2022. That is a fundamentally important shift that cannot be overstated.””
“Not only do Republicans out-perform Democrats at the polls because of who they are at the polls, now there’s more of them.”
REPUBLICANS WERE FAR MORE MOTIVATED
Overall voter turnout is one thing; party turnout is another.
“The percentage of Democrats that voted in November [2022] was below 50%. The Republicans’ share of the Republicans that voted is not that different than 2018,” Binder said.
Specifically, Democrats’ voter turnout was an abysmal 49% while Republican turnout was 64%. If you already have fewer voters than the other party, having worse turnout will lead to a wipeout in an election.
“We’ve got an operation that gets our voters engaged,” Brill said.
“It’s not that Republicans showed up in force in 2022; they showed up the same,” Binder said, “It’s that Democrats didn’t show up.”
COMING UP IN TWO WEEKS
Why was the turnout bad for Democrats? Money and statewide operation are two of the big reasons, especially compared to the state Republican Party.
In the final part of “Red, Purple, & Blue: A Sea Change in Florida Politics,” we look at where Florida is now and what it looks like in the near future. While Brill says Florida is not a swing state, and Dr. Binder and Zac Anderson of the Sarasota Herald-Tribune think the state has flipped for the near-future — Binder thinks the state resembles Ohio, not a state such as Alabama, in terms of how Republican it is — Fried thinks the Democratic mistakes discussed in this series culminated to the losses in 2022 and that, on the issues, Democrats align more with voters.
We’ll explore all this and more in the final part, airing at 6:00 p.m. and 10 p.m. Sunday, December 3. You can watch all episodes you missed on this website. Hover over ‘News’ at the top of the page and click ‘Politics.’